The impacts of
global warming and climate change are worldwide. For Bangladesh they are most
critical as large part of the population is chronically exposed and vulnerable
to a range of natural hazards (DoE, 2007). The Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that global temperatures will rise between
1.8 C and 4.0 C by the last decade of the 21st century (IPCC, 2007). The
impacts of global warming on the climate, however, will vary in different
regions of the world (GoB, 2008). In South Asia, the 4 IPCC Report predicts
that monsoon rainfall will increase, resulting in higher flows during the
monsoon season in the rivers, which flow into Bangladesh from India, Nepal,
Bhutan and China. These flows are likely to further increase in the medium term
due to the melting of the Himalayan glaciers. The IPCC also forecasts that
global warming will result in sea level rises o between 0.18 and 0.79 meters,
which could increase coastal flooding and saline intrusion into aquifers and
rivers across a wide belt in the south of the country (GobB, 208 and GoB,
2009).
Bangladesh
is one of the most climate vulnerable countries in the world and will become
even more so as a result of climate change. Floods, tropical cyclones, storm
surges and droughts are likely to become more frequent and severe in the coming
years (GoB, 2008 and GoB, 2009). Already, the
human suffering and cost to development is massive to this country and its
people who are victims of human induced global warming. Between 1991 and 2000,
93 major disasters were recorded in Bangladesh, resulting in nearly 200,000
deaths and causing US $ 5.9 billion in damages with high losses in agriculture
and infrastructure (DoE, 2007). DoE (2007) mentioned according to IPCC in their
recently published Fourth Assessment, the following changes have been observed
in climate trends, variability and extreme events are
- In Bangladesh, average temperature has registered an increasing trend of about 1°C in May and 0.5°C in November during the 14 year period from 1985 to 1998.
- The annual mean rainfall exhibits increasing trends in Bangladesh. Decadal rain anomalies are above long term averages since 1960s.
- Serious and recurring floods have taken place during 2002, 2003, and 2004. Cyclones originating from the Bay of Bengal have been noted to decrease since 1970 but the intensity has increased.
- Frequency of monsoon depressions and cyclones formation in Bay of Bengal has increased.
- Water shortages has been attributed to rapid urbanization and industrialization, population growth and inefficient water use, which are aggravated by changing climate and its adverse impacts on demand, supply and water quality.
- Salt water from the Bay of Bengal is reported to have penetrated 100 km or more inland along tributary channels during the dry season.
- The precipitation decline and droughts has resulted in the drying up of wetlands and severe degradation of ecosystems.
GoB
2008 and GoB 2009 mentioned that Climate change will exacerbate many of the
current problems and natural hazards the country faces. It is expected to
result in:
- Increasingly frequent and severe tropical cyclones, with higher wind speeds and storm surges leading to more damage in the coastal region;
- Heavier and more erratic rainfall in the Ganges- Brahmaputra-Meghna system, including Bangladesh, during the monsoon resulting in:
Higher river flows, causing
over-topping and breaching of embankments and widespread flooding in rural and
urban areas,
River bank erosion resulting
in loss of homes and agricultural land to the rivers;
Increased sedimentation in
riverbeds leading to drainage congestion and water logging;
- Melting of the Himalayan glaciers, leading to higher river flows in the warmer months of the year, followed by lower river flows and increased saline intrusion after the glaciers have shrunk or disappeared;
- Lower and more erratic rainfall, resulting in increasing droughts, especially in drier northern and western regions of the country;
- Sea level rises, leading to submergence of lowlying coastal areas and saline water intrusion up coastal rivers and into groundwater aquifers, reducing freshwater availability; damage to the Sundarbans mangrove forest, a World Heritage site with rich biodiversity; and drainage congestion inside coastal polders, which will adversely affect agriculture;
- Warmer and more humid weather, leading to increased prevalence of disease and disease vectors.
Each
of these changes is likely to seriously affect agriculture (crops, livestock
and fisheries). The higher temperatures and changing rainfall patterns, coupled
with increased flooding, rising salinity in the coastal belt and droughts are
likely to reduce crop yields and crop production. IPCC estimates that, by 2050,
rice production in Bangladesh could decline by 8% and wheat by 32% (against a
base year of 1990) (GoB, 2088). It also mentioned shortage of safe drinking
water is likely to become more pronounced, especially in the coastal belt and
in drought-prone areas in the north-west of the country. This will impose
hardship on women and children, who are responsible for collecting drinking
water for their families. Increasingly saline drinking water may also result in
health hazards, especially for pregnant women. Climate change is likely to
adversely affect women more than men (GoB, 2008 and GoB 2009).
Increased
river bank erosion and saline water intrusion in coastal areas are likely to
displace hundreds of thousands of people who will be forced to migrate, often
to slums in Dhaka and other big cities. All of these changes threaten the food
security, livelihoods and health of the poor (GoB, 2008 and GoB, 2009).
Climate
change is likely to increase the incidence of water-borne and air-borne
diseases. Bacteria, parasites and disease vectors breed faster in warmer and
wetter conditions and where there is poor drainage and sanitation. In view of
this, it will be important to implement public health measures (immunization;
improved drainage, sanitation and hygiene) to reduce the spread of these
diseases and to improve access to health services for those communities likely
to be worst affected by climate change. Unless these steps are taken, the
health of many of the poorest and most vulnerable people will deteriorate.
Acute illness is known to be one of the main triggers driving people into
extreme poverty and destitution in Bangladesh (GoB 2008 and GoB, 2009).
Several
studies indicate that the coastal zone vulnerability would be acute due to the
combined effects of climate change, sea level rise, subsidence, and changes of
upstream river discharge, cyclone and coastal embankments (GoB, 2005, BCAS/RA/Approtech,
1994 and WB, 2000). Four key types of primary physical effects i.e. saline
water intrusion; drainage congestion; extreme events; and changes in coastal
morphology have been identified as key vulnerabilities in the coastal area of
Bangladesh (GoB, 2005 and WB, 2000). According to GOB (2005) effects of climate
change in the coastal zone are given below:
·
The effect of saline water intrusion in the
estuaries and into the groundwater would be enhanced by low river flow, sea
level rise and subsidence. Pressure of the growing population and rising demand
due to economic development will further reduce relative availability of fresh
water supply in future. The adverse effects of saline water intrusion will be
significant on coastal agriculture and the availability of fresh water for
public and industrial water supply will fall (GoB, 2005).
- The combined effect of higher sea water levels, subsidence, siltation of estuary branches, higher riverbed levels and reduced sedimentation in flood-protected areas will impede drainage and gradually increase water logging problems. This effect will be particularly strong in the coastal zone. The problem will be aggravated by the continuous development of infrastructure (e.g. roads) reducing further the limited natural drainage capacity in the delta. Increased periods of inundation may hamper agricultural productivity, and will also threaten human health by increasing the potential for water borne disease.
- Disturbance of coastal morphological processes would become a significant problem under warmer climate change regime. Bangladesh’ coastal morphological processes are extremely dynamic, partly because of the tidal and seasonal variations in river flows and run off. Climate change is expected to increase these variations, Climate change is expected to increase these variations, with two main (related) processes involved:
i.Increased bank erosion and bed level changes
of coastal rivers and estuaries. There will be a substantial increase of
morphological activity with increased river flow, implying that riverbank
erosion might substantially increase in the future.
ii. Disturbance of the balance between river
sediment transport and deposition in rivers, flood plains and coastal areas.
Disturbance of the sedimentation balance will result in higher bed levels of
rivers and coastal areas, which in turn will lead to higher water levels.
- Increased intensity of extreme events. The coastal area of Bangladesh and the Bay of Bengal are located at the tip of northern Indian Ocean, which has the shape of an inverted funnel. The area is frequently hit by severe cyclonic storms, generating long wave tidal surges which are aggravated because the Bay itself is quite shallow. Cyclones and storm urges are expected to become more intense with climate change. Though the country is relatively well equipped particularly in managing the aftermath of cyclones, the increased intensity of such disasters implies major constraints to the country’s social and economic development. Unless proper adaptive measures are undertaken, private sector investment in the coastal zone is likely to be discouraged by the increased risks of cyclones and flooding.
In
2005, we developed the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA)
after extensive consultations with communities across the country, professional
groups; and other members of civil society. The National Adaptation Programme
of Action (NAPA) for Bangladesh has
been prepared by the Ministry of Environment and Forest (MOEF), Government of
the People’s Republic of Bangladesh as a response to the decision of the
Seventh Session of the Conference of the Parties (COP7) of the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).The strategic goals and
objectives of future coping mechanisms are to reduce adverse effects of climate
change including variability and extreme events and promote sustainable
development. Future 15 coping strategies and mechanisms are suggested based on
existing process and practices keeping main essence of adaptation science which
is a process to adjust with adverse situation of climate change.
Government
has since taken this process forward, including through the adoption of the Bangladesh
Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP),
which will be the main basis of government efforts to combat climate change
over the next ten years. This document has also been prepared after extensive
consultations with all important sections of our citizens, including
disadvantaged groups, such as those identified as major groups in Agenda 21. This
will be achieved by implementing an Action Plan , which will have six pillars:
(1) Food security, social protection and health; (2) Comprehensive disaster
management; (3) Infrastructure development; (4) Research and knowledge
management; (5) Mitigation and low-carbon development; and (6) Capacity
building and institutional development. The Action Plan will be an integral
part of national development policies, plans and programmes.
Reference
Banglapedia (2012a) Assasuni
Upazila, National Encyclopedia of Bangladesh.
Banglapedia (2012b) Shyamnagar
Upazila, National Encyclopedia of Bangladesh.
BCAS/RA/Approtech (1994) Vulnerability of Bangladesh to Climate
Change and Sea Level Rise: Concepts and Tools for Calculating Risk in
Integrated Coastal Zone Management, Dhaka, Bangladesh: Bangladesh Centre
for Advanced Studies (BCAS).
DoE (2007) Climate
Change and Bangladesh, Dhaka: Climate Change Cell, Department of Environment,
Government of the Peoples Republic of Bangladesh.
GoB (2005) The
National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA), Dhaka: Ministry of
Environment and Forests, Government of the Peoples Republic of Bangladesh.
GoB (2008) Bangladesh
Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan 2008, Dhaka: Ministry of
Environment and Forests, Government of the Peoples Republic of Bangladesh.
GoB (2009) Bangladesh
Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan 2008, Dhaka: Ministry of
Environment and Forests, Government of the Peoples Republic of Bangladesh.
IPCC (2007), Climate Change 2007: The Physical
Science Basis, Summary for Policy Makers, Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, Working Group 1, p. 13.
World Bank (2000) Bangladesh: Climate Changeand Sustainable Development,
Report no. 21104- BD, Dhaka: Rural Development Unit, South Asia Region,
The World Bank (Wb).
